Uh-oh.
During the past few years, I have discussed avian flu (bird flu) occasionally, and somewhat cautiously, in class. I'm not a "catastrophist", someone who sees disaster lurking around every corner. I believe that climate change is real, but I also have faith in mankind's ingenuity to adapt and change. I didn't get concerned about the alleged Y2K virus that was to have shut down all personal computers, as well as global air traffic control networks, train systems, banking systems, and other computer based management systems. And as I told my wife Sue several years ago, I wasn't too concerned about avian flu, "Unless", I told her "the virus jumps into pigs - that would concern me".
Consider me concerned.
There are about 15 known strains of virus. Some effect birds/water fowl. Some effect humans. The organisms are genetically different enough in these two classes that viral strain rarely jump from one class (Aves) to another (Mammalia). There are a few viral strains however, that effect birds, swine, and humans. Swine are mammals. We are mammals. Swine there can act as a viral bridge, allowing an avian flu to "migrate" into, and infect, humans.
This transmission of disease from animals to humans is called zoonosis. (I can hear Jenny now, bristling at the notion that humans are not animals, and we consider ourselves, somehow "different". A perfect segue into our next book, Ishmael.) We may in fact be animals, but viruses seem to specialize and distinguish between different classes of animals. This distinction has shielded humans from many diseases.
The swine flu being reported in Mexico is a combination of avian and swine flu. At this time, it is being reported in Mexico, New York, California, Texas, Kansas, Israel, New Zealand, France and Hong Kong. Human immune systems are encountering this bug and saying "Huh? What's this?" Not knowing how to respond, those who are infected find themselves with immune systems going into overdrive - sometimes to their own detriment.
If I were to make a hypothesis it would be this: we are about to see a global pandemic. The first wave will be relative mild with relatively few infections. Then, Darwinian principles will kick in, the "strongest viruses will survive" and adapt to Tamiflu or whatever is being used against them, and a second, more serious wave of viral infections will occur. It's important to keep all of this in perspective. Influenza is always to be treated as a potentially serious disease. The "flu" is responsible 35,000 deaths in the US each year, mostly in our most vulnerable population groups - infants and the elderly. And there was another swine flu alert put out in 1976, but that epidemic never materialized - certainly not to anything approaching global pandemic levels.
Hopefully, I will be proved wrong (It will not be the first time!) and this whole thing will fizzle out. But this is my current thinking on the matter. Transmission is exponential; 2 pass it on to 4, and on to 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024 etc. We should have a much clearer sense of where this thing is heading towards the end of this week.
While several people in Mexico have died, they reportedly did not seek treatment. At this point, no Americans have died from the swine flu. A primary concern is that this strain of flu seems to be targeting young, otherwise healthy teenagers and adults, rather then the typically vulnerable populations.
My advice to you all is the same advice I've given my own kids: wash your hands, follow new developments in the news, and if you begin to feel any flu-like symptoms (tiredness, joint-aches, fever, disorientation) get thee to a physician!
As disturbing as these recent developments are, I could not have planned a better illustration of what we have been studying these past few weeks. Infectious agents kick one's immune system into gear. The virus presents an antigen/epitope not previous known to one's immune system. One gets tested for swine flu with an Enzyme Linked Immuno-Sorbant Assay, and then receives treatment based on a positive or negative indicator in the test.
Sometimes the real-life connections are a little too real.
So where did this swine flu virus come from? Aren't there always viruses? How did it make the "leap" from birds to pigs to humans? How? It evolved. And that, dear students, will lead us to another relevant "real-life" connection this week as we acquaint ourselves with Darwin's elegantly simple, yet utterly profound, thoughts on the diversity of life on earth: the theory of evolution.
8 comments:
I was just listening to the news this morning and heard about the swine flu. I find it very ironic as well that this virus has cropped up around the same time we have been discussing the immune system in class.
It is very scary to think that something we consider a very simple sickness can turn into a global pandemic. With that as you mentioned it causes 35,000 deaths in the U.S. alone. I would never have estimated that high a number. I guess as a teenager it is a sickness that does not appear to be very debilitating, but is obviously something that can be taken for granted.
I think this a very interesting topic and something I feel is very prevalent to our nation. It is something everyone should be informed of.
The prospect of a global pandemic is not comforting. I can't help but recall the black plague that swept across Europe every time someone brings up the avian/swine flu topic.
There have been diseases all through history. Humans adapt. It's life. I certainly feel sorry for any damage caused by these diseases, but this happens. If I were to be struck down with this virus, I would certainly not be happy, but in the grand scheme of things, I'm just another statistic that studants will have to memorize in their history courses fifty years from now (if we're still here... dun dun dun).
But seriously, viruses evolve just like everything else. We'll evolve too, and if we don't, we die. It's simple. So I hope we evolve and I don't die while this is taking place.
Seriously, I hate hearing about every swine/mad cow disease/avian flu thing that pops up. When it reaches the magnitude that the black plague did, give me a call.
-Mike Diamond
It's actually kind of strange because the day that you mentioned the swine flu in class was the same day my mom got an e-mail about it and the first day i heard it mentioned on the radio and the first day that people started talking about it at work. Wow, scary. With pigs being mammals and us being mammals it's very alarming to hear that a disease such as this is spreading around. I know in your post you mentioned that it hasn't actually killed anybody in the United States yet, but is that still true? I thought I heard on the radio within the last few days that the first case of death from this disease had been reported?
-Heidi
The swine flu has made the jump to humans. Now the flu has evolved what will happen to us? Well as Mike so kindly suggested we evolve and adapt as well or we die. The is the reason there are so many humans and that is why we are all so different. Somebody is going to win and hopefully it is us. We have all seen the movies when a nasty virus takes over the world. That may be an bad example but we cannot exclude it. We must stay optimistic like we do about most things. I just hope us humans take action a prevent things from getting out of hand. What else is there to say?
Andy H
The first question that came to my mind was; How can we predict that it could be a pandemic so soon? It was just recently discovered and there have been very few cases and even fewer deaths. When you compare it to how many deaths the normal flu causes a year (35,000) it seems like there shouldn't be anything to worry about, after all, we don't worry that much about the regular flu.
I understand that it is a new strand and that humans have not been exposed to it and therefore don't know how to fend it off. But aren't other bacteria and diseases constantly evolving as well? Why don't these have as much effect on us? How come we're not as worried about them? Also, we seem to have treatment for the swine flu, so why all the buzz? It is quite possible that I am missing part of the puzzle, so please tell me where my thinking is wrong.
-Amanda O.
P.S. I hope that you are wrong as well Mr Engler. It would be terrible if there was a pandemic.
The Swine Flu certainly makes me feel uncomfortable, too. When I learn about these diseases, I can't help thinking that the only save place is under my bed. As soon as I step out of the door, I catch all that nasty stuff that's floating around out there!!
At first I thought, this is gonna be just like the bird flu shich turned out to be, well... no big deal. But I gues you do have a point when you say that we're much closer related to the pig than to birds. (There is my bed again...)
In my other blog, I wrote that nature keeps the world in ballance with epidemics. Maybe they are necessary. Would there be enough space for all of us and other animals on our planet, hadn't so many been wiped out by epidemics?
Population growth is exponential, too. What would the population density be, if just all the victims of the plague had had children?
I just hope, the Swine Flu turns out to be rather harmless. I can't even imagine what it would be like if one person close to me died.
I hope for the best!
Great! We have something else to worry about besides the economy and global warming. There will always be something that comes after another something and so on. Sometimes it's just not fair.
The scary part is that there will always be evolution, so like you said, Mr. Engler, new viruses will evolve and create more terror on birds, swine, and humans. The only thing we can do is wait these things out and do our best to avoid them. (It's hard to do this when it's everywhere).
I honestly didn't think that it would come close to us up here in the wilderness, but I was proved wrong...I'll just try to be optimistic and hope that it will not be as disastrous as they say it can be!!
~Stacy~
As of now, I have heard of one or two U.S. deaths, one was a 22 year old I believe. Still, the syptoms aren't generally extremely bad. If this does reach a second, nastier wave I don't think tons of people will begin keeling over, although I'm sure there will be quite a few deaths if it comes to that.
supposedly scientists have been working on a vaccination for the disease although supposedly it's months off. If Mr. Englers prediction is right and the next wave hits in fall, then they may possibly have a vaccination ready, which would be nice.
Whether this turns into a new "black plague" or not, humans have the same ability to adapt to survive as viruses do, and humanity itself will live on undoubtably.
-Daniel G.
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